The WTO’s Global Trade Outlook for April 2025, published on Wednesday, 16 April, presents a grim view of international trade, one marred by reciprocal tariffs and fears of a worldwide trade war.

In its first report since Trump’s broad-ranging tariffs came into effect, the WTO revised its estimates of global trade volumes, forecasting they would fall by 0.2% in 2025 and pick up slightly in 2026, rising by 2.5%. In the October report, trade volumes were predicted to rise by 3% in 2025 after a strong 2.7% growth in 2024.

A forecasted 1.7% reduction in North American trade is largely responsible for the shift, while merchandise trade is expected to keep rising, albeit less than previous estimates, in the rest of the world. The most marked decrease is expected to be in Asian trade, now forecasted to only grow by 0.6% compared to the impressive 7.4% growth projected in the October report. 

This comes as tariffs imposed by the Trump administration come into effect all over the world; while many of the headline-making country-specific tariffs have been halted for 90 days, the 10% baseline tariff remains for all exports to the US. Nevertheless, the trade uncertainty caused by the tariff announcements and fears of further tariffs on specific industries, like pharmaceuticals or metals, is responsible for the “significant reversal” in estimates, said the WTO. 

US tariffs on China, the only ones not subject to the 90-day delay, currently stand at 145%, with a 125% reciprocal tariff levied by China on US goods. This is expected to lead to a sharp fall in US imports from China, creating opportunities for suppliers from emerging economies to fill the gap. Similarly, Chinese exports to all regions except North America are expected to rise by as much as 9% as goods are redirected outside the US.

If the currently suspended tariffs were to come into effect, they would lead to a further reduction of 0.6% in global trade, with emerging economies bearing the brunt of the effect. A rise in trade policy uncertainty, for example if more countries enacted reciprocal tariffs against the US, could lead to a further 0.8% decline, for a total of -1.5% trade growth in 2025.

The report marks the first time the WTO measures trade in services, a growing but oft-overlooked sector in global trade. Services trade is expected to grow significantly in 2025, but tariff-related uncertainty and a decrease in global trade will see it rise by just 4%, more than a percentage point below pre-tariff estimates. 

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The amendment, introduced on 9 August 2024 and passed on 10 March 2025, strengthens two crucial aspects: it clarifies that all contractual rights contained within a bill of lading are automatically transferred to the consignee or lawful endorsee, and confirms that, in the hands of a bona fide holder, a bill of lading is conclusive evidence that goods have been loaded.

“This amendment marks a critical milestone for catapulting India’s digital trade ecosystem, embedding legal certainty and modernisation into the heart of maritime commerce,” said Imran Khan, Executive Director of ICC India. “It sends a clear signal that India is very committed to removing the paper trapped in global trade and harmonising with global best practices, which will benefit businesses and supply chains alike.” 

This reform addresses legal certainty in shipping documentation and is a notable development in India’s progress towards digitising trade flows. The amendment complements India’s broader efforts to enable the adoption of electronic transferable records (ETRs), aligning with the UNCITRAL Model Law on Electronic Transferable Records (MLETR). According to the MLETR tracker, India has currently achieved the first stage of “MLETR Socialisation”, and is moving towards the “Political Support” stage.

In parallel, India is taking steps to encourage the use of electronic bills of lading (eBLs) in its maritime sector. The Ministry of Shipping has promoted the development of eBLs under the Electronic Port Community System (ePCS) to enhance operational efficiency and reduce paperwork.

In a regional context, India has also piloted cross-border eBL transfers with South Korea, allowing customs authorities to exchange digital documents. This sits alongside the growing adoption of technology-driven supply chain tools, such as RFID tagging and IoT-enabled container tracking, by Indian startups aiming to digitise the end-to-end logistics ecosystem.

Ketan Gaikwad, CEO of Receivables Exchange of India Ltd (RXIL), said, “This development is a step ahead towards the digitization of international trade for India and a long-awaited one, considering India has made significant progress in the supply chain financing of the local supply chain via digital TReDS and other payment mechanisms.”

“The transport & logistics space has much to gain from eBLs and UNCITRAL’s MLETR. The legislative progress achieved by India over the last decade offers an example to the world across digital payments, financing for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and digital trade,” said Andre Casterman, Board Member at ITFA.

The 2025 Bills of Lading Bill, introduced by the Union Minister of Ports, Shipping & Waterways, Shri Sarbananda Sonowal, is set to replace the 1856 Act entirely. The original bill was established at the advent of British colonial rule, and provides a legal framework for imperial benefit; the new draft bill simplifies legal language, removes colonial-era provisions, and grants the Central Government the power to issue directives supporting implementation.

Speaking at the Lok Sabha, Sarbananda Sonowal, India’s Minister of Ports, Shipping and Waterways, said, “The passing of the Bills of Lading Bill, 2025, in Parliament is a significant step in fulfilling Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision of modernising India’s legal framework, making it more relevant, modern, accessible, and free from colonial legacies that have long hindered our progress.”

This updated framework is expected to reduce litigation risk and simplify contract enforcement for carriers, shippers, and endorsee holders. 

The bill will now proceed to the Rajya Sabha, the upper house of India’s parliament, and is subject to Presidential assent before entering into force, and should strengthen the legal foundation in India’s journey towards trade digitalisation.

For more on digital trade and legislative reform, listen to our latest podcast on ETDA and the future of cross-border trade.

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The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (CEPA), a wide-ranging bilateral trade pact the UAE has signed with 6 countries from India to Israel, contributed to boosting growth and increasingly diverse trading partners and sources of revenue. 

CEPAs are a crucial tool in the UAE’s strategy to increase its foreign trade and place itself as a trading hub for both emerging and developed economies. The exact terms of the Agreement vary from country to country, and range from the near-total removal of tariffs on bilateral trade, as in the CEPA signed with Israel in 2023, to investment in non-oil sectors and the removal of administrative trade barriers, negotiated with Indonesia shortly after. The UAE recently announced the signing of a CEPA with Kenya in January 2025 focused on simplifying customs procedures and promoting innovation and digital trade; similar deals with Australia and New Zealand are in the works. 

After the establishment of CEPAs, countries see a jump in trade with the UAE of up to 40% and a diversification in their own exports, as Emirati companies build trade relationships and expand their supply chains. It is estimated that the UAE’s impressive 42% rise in non-oil trade in the last year was largely due to the reduction in tariffs and trade barriers brought about by CEPAs with many of the UAE’s most important trading partners. 

The UAE, which just 15 years ago was almost entirely financed by oil revenues, has been looking to diversify its exports and trade partners. In 2021, the country set a goal of increasing its foreign trade to $1.1 trillion by 2031; just 3 years later, trade figures are about three quarters of the way to this goal, showing that efforts to diversify have been more successful than anyone could have hoped for.

Diversification is all the more important for oil-rich countries as oil prices become more volatile and a precarious global geopolitical situation makes land and sea routes less reliable. As much of the developed world sets ambitious goals to cut down on fossil fuel use in favour of green energy sources, the UAE has turned to tourism, logistics, and the services sector to drive growth away from oil and into more sustainable industries.

UAE trade is only likely to grow further as the government makes a concerted effort to attract foreign imports and forge robust trade relationships. While global trade experienced lackluster growth of only 2% in 2024, the UAE’s 14% year-on-year rise shows great things are in store for the once oil-focused Gulf economy. More than anything, the UAE’s growth shows the potential that lies in lowering trade barriers and increasing international collaboration – a poignant message for many of the nations affected by the US’s forthcoming tariff hikes.

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