This approach enables factoring companies to implement solutions faster and with fewer resources, allowing them to begin offering factoring services to their clients, such as SMEs and corporates, more efficiently.

By providing pre-configured modules and features, ready-made factoring software simplifies implementation and streamlines key processes, such as handling receivables and invoices entered by entrepreneurs. 

The standardised nature of these solutions typically comes with pre-determined terms, fee structures, and documentation, making the software deployment relatively straightforward (compared to a fully customised offering). This is particularly valuable for banks and factoring institutions aiming to expand their services or transition from an older system without the delays associated with extensive IT development projects.

However, as is often the case, simplicity and speed can come with trade-offs. While good off-the-shelf software does not preclude requests for changes or new functionality over time, the standardised approach may limit the ability to tailor the system to fit specific operational requirements or market nuances, posing challenges for organisations with particularly complex or unique workflows. 

Karol Leszczyński, Product Development Manager at Comarch Factoring Platform, said, “When implementing off-the-shelf software, the process is mostly agile-oriented, allowing requirements to adapt to changing circumstances as the project progresses. 

“With a ready-made solution, clients receive a standardised version of the system early on, enabling them to gradually assess its features and determine the necessary customisations. The biggest advantage of this approach is that they can start generating revenue from the new system at an early stage and, if needed, tailor it further to their specific needs.”

What to consider when implementing a ready-made factoring system

Implementing ready-made factoring software can still be a long process, sometimes taking upwards of 3-6 months, depending on the scope of integration and the degree of customisation required. While these systems offer efficiency and ease of deployment, the process involves balancing standardisation with the specific demands of the business and its regulatory environment.

A key consideration is evaluating how well the off-the-shelf solution aligns with the existing processes and strategic goals of the factoring institution. Although ready-made systems are designed for broad applicability, they may not fully meet a company’s operational needs without some level of adaptation. Identifying essential features—particularly those tied to a company’s unique offerings—can help determine whether additional customisation is necessary.

Compatibility with local market conditions and regulations is equally important. Factoring companies operate in environments with varying tax laws, payment structures, and data privacy requirements. Ensuring that the software can adapt to these local nuances is crucial to a successful implementation.

The choice of implementation methodology also plays a significant role in determining outcomes. Traditional approaches like waterfall offer a clear, structured roadmap, while more iterative, agile models provide flexibility to address unforeseen challenges. Agile methodologies are particularly useful when extensive customisation or ongoing adjustments are anticipated.

Additionally, the transition to any new digital tool – ready-made factoring software included – often requires a cultural shift within the organisation. Employees used to legacy processes and systems will need training and support to fully embrace the new technology, making stakeholder engagement and change management essential parts of the process.

While the software itself may be ready-made, the implementation process is rarely one-size-fits-all.

Is ready-made factoring worth all the fuss?

This brings us to the question of whether ready-made factoring solutions are indeed worth all the fuss. “Before selecting a vendor for our new system, we first gathered all the requirements and customisations we wanted—there were around 600 items detailing what the software should include and how it should function. Initially, we planned to build the project scope around these specifications,” said Ewa Gawrońska-Micuń, Head of Strategic Marketing and Product for the CEE region, Country Manager Poland at Bibby Financial Services. 

“However, over time with the process of exploring the system, we realised that many of our needs can be met by the system’s features, without requiring customisation, in a different way that we designed.”

Proponents emphasise the speed and cost-effectiveness of these solutions, which allow banks and factoring companies to quickly begin offering factoring services without the high expenses of developing custom systems. The accessibility of pre-configured solutions can be especially beneficial for smaller financial institutions with limited IT resources. Moreover, the reliability of ready-made systems, combined with the ongoing updates and scalability provided by established vendors, ensures that the software can evolve alongside market needs.

“We approached the system with a clearly defined set of functionalities needed to meet the expectations of both our clients and our team,” Gawrońska-Micuń explained. 

“Exploring the out-of-the-box system and participating in functional workshops helped us identify potential gaps. Once we understood where those gaps were, we could easily decide whether customization was truly necessary or if it would be more effective to refine our existing processes to achieve the same result.”

However, critics point to the limitations of standardisation. Some ready-made systems may struggle to accommodate the unique processes or workflows of certain institutions, which can lead to costly customisations or workarounds. However, in the long term, as users become familiar with the out-of-the-box solution, many find that the pre-built processes are designed better than the ones they were used to before.

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Further, if an implementation is not well planned in advance or a vendor lacks transparency, hidden expenses, such as fees for additional features or updates, can also erode the initial cost advantage. Furthermore, the one-size-fits-all nature of these solutions may hinder organisations that rely on tailored systems to maintain a competitive edge in complex or highly regulated markets.

“Allowing clients to thoroughly explore the system before implementation should be a standard practice in the deployment process,” Leszczyński explained. “During the functional workshop phase, they gain an in-depth understanding of the off-the-shelf solution. In our experience, clients often come in with a long list of customisations, but after familiarising themselves with the system, they frequently find that the existing features meet their needs.”

“A good vendor remains flexible, readily adapting to these changes and evolving the system together with the client based on their real needs,” he summarised. The value of ready-made factoring lies in its balance of speed, affordability, and reliability against compromises in flexibility and extensive customisation. Whether it is the right choice depends on the institution’s ability to adapt its processes to fit the system or justify the investment in customisation where needed.

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• Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 initiative aims to further diversify its economy.
• Part of this relies on a wholesale digital transformation, which every citizen recognises their role in.
• This puts Saudi Arabia in a promising position from which to make its mark on the fintech sector.

Saudi Arabia’s fintech revolution didn’t happen overnight. 

Once known primarily for oil exports, the Kingdom is rewriting its future by embracing innovation and technology through Vision 2030, a strategy that has united policymakers, businesses, and citizens in building a globally recognised financial and technological hub. 

At the BAFT MENA Bank to Bank Forum in Dubai, Michael O’Loughlin, founder of OLOUGHLIN.io Global Business Advisory, delivered a keynote speech titled “All Roads Lead to Saudi”, providing a firsthand look at this transformation and explaining why the world is paying attention. 

Building a fintech ecosystem: the power of Vision 2030

Vision 2030 is an initiative aimed at reducing the country’s reliance on oil while promoting technology, tourism, and financial services. The strategy’s impact is visible in the Kingdom’s ongoing giga projects, including NEOM – a smart city showcasing cutting-edge innovation and futuristic living. 

Perhaps more importantly, Vision 2030 has cultivated a collective sense of purpose among Saudi citizens; from taxi drivers to corporate executives, people across all sectors understand their role in this national effort. This is good because Vision 2030’s success hinges on collaboration across all sectors, both public and private. 

The Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) and the Capital Market Authority (CMA) have played instrumental roles in creating a regulatory environment that encourages innovation for the nation’s Fintech sector. Organisations such as MISA (the Ministry of Investment) and various international tech giants have also stepped in, bringing expertise and capital to the table.

But it’s not just domestic organisations that stepping to the table. Companies like Microsoft, Oracle, Amazon, and Huawei have established significant presences within the Kingdom, contributing to cloud computing infrastructure and data centres. 

The government has also encouraged universities and corporations to collaborate on training programs that address the fintech talent gap, which has long been a barrier to growth. 

Digital transformation and financial inclusion

As the Gulf Nation builds its fintech ecosystem, digital transformation remains a core focus. Many are turning to emerging technologies to promote financial inclusion and drive innovation. Initiatives such as real-time payments, open banking, and mobile payment systems are reshaping how Saudis interact with businesses and financial institutions.

One notable example is the exploration of gamification in finance. Gamifying finance involves integrating game-like elements into financial services and applications to make managing money more engaging, interactive, and rewarding. For example, a savings app could reward users with points when they reach a savings target, unlocking discounts or cashback options.

Gamification in finance is critical in engaging younger, tech-savvy consumers and is key to the success of fintech initiatives. With over half of the Saudi population under 30, this demographic represents a critical market for digital financial services.

The emphasis on financial inclusion also addresses a broader societal need—ensuring that small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) can access affordable financing and digital tools. For example, the Kafalah Program – a government-backed initiative that guarantees loans for SMEs – has enabled SMEs in rural areas to access microloans through mobile platforms, allowing small shop owners and local artisans to scale their businesses and participate in the broader economy. 

By integrating fintech solutions into everyday financial activities, Saudi Arabia is working to bridge gaps in access to credit and empower businesses across its diverse economic landscape.

Diversifying beyond oil: investment, talent, and global connectivity

Saudi Arabia’s shift from an oil-based economy to one driven by innovation and investment is perhaps the most striking element of its transformation—a country once defined by vast oil fields is now making headlines for pioneering AI, fintech, and technological breakthroughs.

A number of upcoming events, such as the 2030 Expo and the 2034 FIFA World Cup, further demonstrate the Kingdom’s ambition to become a global hub for business, tourism, and entertainment.

But these ambitious plans require talented people to bring them to life. Vision 2030’s ambitious plans include creating unprecedented opportunities for Saudi talent, strategically investing in international education, and sending promising students abroad to gain global expertise and perspectives. 

The Kingdom historically saw a degree of reliance on international experts, who took the place of a less entrepreneurial workforce. But investment is now bearing fruit as Saudi nationals return home, bringing with them valuable international experience and novel approaches. Notably, women’s participation in the economy has risen to a record 37% in 2022 due to gender reforms implemented in the prior five years.

Saudi Arabia on the global fintech stage

As Saudi Arabia leans into fintech development, the world is taking notice. The Kingdom aims to be a global leader in fintech innovation, and Vision 2030 has provided the framework, but it is the execution of strategic initiatives and the willingness to take risks that drive real change.

One of the key remaining regulatory challenges involves ensuring that developments in fintech comply with global standards while maintaining local oversight, a balance that can be difficult to achieve.

However, such challenges present opportunities – by refining its regulatory framework and fostering an inclusive environment, Saudi Arabia could further strengthen its position as a global fintech hub. 

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The nation’s fintech ambitions are already bearing fruit, with unemployment rates falling and non-oil sectors contributing a growing share of its GDP. As it continues to invest in its people, infrastructure, and global partnerships, Saudi Arabia is poised to make its mark on the worldwide fintech stage. 

The post All roads lead to Saudi: The digital transformation driving economic diversification appeared first on Trade Finance Global.

• The uses of AI in credit insurance are multifaceted.
• Explainable AI is built to allow users to see the reasoning behind decisions, providing more clarity.
• AI is here to work alongside underwriters, rather than replace them.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to become the modern underwriter’s ‘gadget’ toolkit in trade credit insurance. Imagine a future where underwriters receive AI-generated risk profiles that integrate real-time financial metrics, geopolitical events, and even market trends. The concept is exciting and feels within reach. Though still exploratory, these advancements hint at how AI might redefine the craft of risk evaluation and management.

“AI has strong potential to transform the export credit and investment insurance industry. By making risk assessments smarter and underwriting processes smoother, AI can help us handle uncertainties more effectively. This could lead to cost savings, improved profitability, and better strategic decisions, ultimately boosting global trade and investment to new heights,” said Arturs Karlsons, Associate Director at Berne Union.

A new era of underwriting: AI takes the spotlight

The strength of AI lies in its ability to sift through vast amounts of data and uncover patterns that no human could. With the right development and training, such a system would be able to review a decade’s worth of financial records for a client, cross-check them with live economic indicators, and deliver an assessment within moments. 

However, if AI is to gain widespread acceptance, particularly in this field, transparency will be crucial. Trade credit insurance operates under rigorous scrutiny, and stakeholders need to trust the systems in play; the opaque “black box” algorithms of the past don’t provide the needed level of visibility into the processes that were used to satisfy these requirements. 

Explainable AI (XAI)—a type of AI built to allow users to see exactly why a certain decision is made—is being developed to meet this challenge. For example, an XAI model that flags a client as high-risk would also detail the specific factors involved in that risk rating—perhaps declining revenues or exposure to volatile industries. This clarity could bolster confidence among regulators, clients, and insurers themselves.

What’s particularly intriguing is how these innovations could reshape day-to-day operations. If AI reaches its potential, insurers might see faster underwriting decisions, reduced costs, and a more responsive approach to client engagement. The workflows we’re used to today could feel outdated in the not-too-distant future.

From reactive to proactive: AI in risk management

Traditionally, credit insurers have had to play defence. Risks would emerge, and insurers would respond. AI hints at a future where that script could flip. 

Our innovation lab is exploring using tools like Natural Language Processing (NLP) to allow insurers to analyse unstructured data from news feeds, social media, or corporate reports to spot trouble before it happens. These tools could quickly detect certain trends that human analysts may not have the capacity to pick up—like a spike in negative sentiment around a particular industry in a given region—and proactively adjust coverage strategies. That’s the promise researchers are chasing.

The potential doesn’t stop there. One of AI’s most fascinating prospects is its ability to simulate how risks cascade through interconnected supply chains. Image having insights into the ripple effects created throughout the economy by a supplier defaulting on a payment. An AI model could help map this, highlighting which manufacturers and logistics providers might feel the impact next. These insights could provide a clearer understanding of risk propagation so that insurers would then be able to use them to help limit damage before it spreads.

Though much of this work remains experimental, the vision is compelling. It’s about shifting from a reactive to a proactive stance, and the possibilities that come with that shift are worth exploring.

The augmented underwriter: Man and machine in harmony

Let’s be clear: AI isn’t here to replace underwriters. It’s here to work alongside them, elevating what they do best. Ideally, these tools will handle some of the heavy lifting of data analysis, allowing underwriters to focus on the strategic, human elements of their role. Maybe the system will flag anomalies in a client’s financials but leaves the interpretation—the “what’s next?”—to the underwriter’s expertise. 

This kind of partnership could bring out the best in both humans and machines. AI would offer speed and precision, while underwriters provide context, judgment, and a personal touch. Together, they could create a more efficient and insightful process. The underwriter’s role might shift from data cruncher to strategic advisor and open up new opportunities to strengthen client relationships.

This evolution would come with challenges. Professionals would need training to make the most of AI tools. Yet, the potential rewards—greater accuracy, deeper insights, and enhanced efficiency—make it a challenge worth taking on.

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For all its promise, AI is not without obstacles. Cultural resistance is a persistent issue, and the idea of integrating AI into long-standing practices can be daunting. For organisations to truly benefit, there needs to be a shift in mindset—one that recognises AI as a partner rather than a disruptor.

Looking further ahead, technologies like quantum computing hold even greater possibilities for the field. These advancements could unlock capabilities that are currently out of reach, though for now, they remain speculative. The real focus should be on applying today’s tools to address immediate challenges and lay the groundwork for what’s next.

Trade credit insurers who prepare for these possibilities will be more able to adapt and thrive. The augmented underwriter—a collaboration between human intuition and machine intelligence—is an ambitious and exciting path forward.

To learn more about applications of AI in trade credit insurance, attend “The Augmented Underwriter: Can Artificial Intelligence Empower Further Credit Insurers?” panel at the online Tinubu Conference Day on 5 February. Get your ticket on this link. 

The post How AI can best empower credit insurers appeared first on Trade Finance Global.

The world’s largest landlocked country also accounts for over 50% of Central Asia’s GDP, and has the region’s highest internet usage proportionate to its population. Some might be surprised by Kazakhstan’s emergence as a frontrunner in financial technology within Central Asia, but its preconditions made it a prime testing ground for these digital solutions.

The result of a deliberate focus on digital inclusion, infrastructure investment, and forward-thinking policies, Kazakhstan has become a prime example of how developing economies can turn to fintech to address long-standing challenges and create new opportunities.

Laying the groundwork for fintech success

Kazakhstan’s rise as a fintech hub began with investments in robust digital infrastructure and the population’s digital literacy. By 2023, internet penetration in the country reached an impressive 92.88%, roughly equivalent to Germany (92.48%) or Finland (93.51%), according to data from the World Population Review. Mobile technology adoption is also high, with over 91% of Kazakhstani aged 15 and older having a mobile phone with internet access as of 2021.

This digital acuity also reached Kazakhstan’s financial sector. Active online banking users surged nearly five-fold between 2019 and 2023, rising from 5 million to 23.1 million. The number of cashless transactions also expanded dramatically, rising from $5 billion in 2017 to $158 billion in 2022, achieving a 98% CAGR. 

While necessary, consumer behaviour is not the only factor driving the nation’s financial digitalisation. Legislative initiatives, including the 2023 Digital Assets Law, have created a supportive regulatory environment, which has allowed the banking sector to actively embrace fintech advancements. 

By 2024, 31% of financial institutions had implemented artificial intelligence (AI) technologies for fraud prevention, cybersecurity, and service personalisation. Major banks began acquiring promising startups to enhance their digital capabilities. For instance, virtual cards now comprise 37% of total card issuance at leading banks, and 90% of transactions are now cashless.

Reaching the unreachable: Innovating for financial inclusion

Kazakhstan faced a familiar challenge shared by many developing economies: financial services were out of reach for large portions of its rural population. However, the country’s fintech sector turned this challenge into an opportunity to innovate. 

In 2023, Kazakhstan launched the world’s first digital tenge payment card through a partnership with Visa, the National Payment Corporation, and leading banks (Halyk, BCC, Altyn Bank). This technology allowed individuals in remote areas to access financial services without requiring a physical bank branch. Programmable digital tenge has been directed towards railway investment as of July 2024, as part of the second stage of the country’s CBDC implementation. Firms developing biometric identification systems and mobile payment solutions are further promoting financial inclusion by bridging the gap for those in geographically isolated regions, providing them with secure and convenient access to digital financial services. 

Other developing economies can draw a powerful lesson from Kazakhstan’s approach: when technology addresses specific local challenges, it becomes an engine for social and economic empowerment.

Policies paving the way

Government policy decisions play a major role in shaping the business landscape of the jurisdiction being governed. Thankfully for the nation’s fintech sector, Kazakhstan’s government has been following a strategic vision rooted in policy innovation. 

In 2017, recognising the importance of digital literacy as a foundation for further fintech developments, the “Digital Kazakhstan” program was introduced. This enabled paperless documentation, introduced a “single window” for export-import operations, blockchain-powered VAT accounting, and digital tools to support SMEs with automated monitoring and transparent state assistance. 

“Digital Kazakhstan” laid the foundation for the “Digital Transformation Concept,” introduced by the government in 2023. This was a comprehensive roadmap to foster digital and financial advancements. The National Bank of Kazakhstan launched a regulatory sandbox for testing innovative financial products.

This government approach had the dual benefit of promoting the fintech sector domestically and attracting international investors. The Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC) – a financial hub based in Astana, Kazakhstan and launched in 2018 –  offers a special legal regime tailored for fintech companies. 

This move has signalled that Kazakhstan is open for business. The fintech sector has attracted $32 million in venture capital investment, a staggering 40% of all venture capital flows into the country, and a significant increase over the $10 million attracted in 2022. 

The dual challenge of growth and security

As Kazakhstan’s fintech sector has expanded, the risks associated with cybersecurity have grown in tandem. Financial organisations were targeted by cyber attacks in 12% of cases during 2023. The consequences ranged from operational disruptions to significant financial losses. 

Recognising the urgency of these threats, Kazakhstan launched “Cybershield Kazakhstan,” a national programme designed to bolster digital defences and train security specialists. Beyond managing internal risks, Kazakhstan also strengthened its position as a regional leader in fintech through deliberate collaboration with neighbouring countries. Partnerships with Russia, China, and other Central Asian nations have focused on developing shared digital payment systems and advancing the potential of cross-border financial technologies. Cooperation with international financial centres in Dubai and Singapore continues to expand.

By addressing security concerns while building regional alliances, Kazakhstan has created a case study for how a country can grow its digital economy sustainably while remaining abreast of the challenges of a digital economy.

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Developing economies are in a somewhat advantageous position in terms of digital adoption. Their financial institutions are unencumbered by centuries-old infrastructures; innovation is not regarded as revolutionary, with all the rhetorical baggage that comes with discarding the old. That is to say, developing economies have little to dismantle when paving the road for digitalisation. 

Kazakhstan’s journey from a resource-dependent economy to a fintech leader offers valuable lessons for developing nations worldwide. By prioritising digital infrastructure, addressing rural financial inclusion, implementing supportive policies, and tackling cybersecurity challenges, the country has positioned itself as a model of what targeted innovation can achieve. 

The post The evolution of Kazakhstan’s fintech sector appeared first on Trade Finance Global.

As he prepares for a potential second term, the big question is: what’s next for Mexico? Could a new wave of tariffs or stricter rules under the USMCA push Mexico to the brink again, or has it learned enough from the past to weather whatever might come? Before diving into the future, let’s take a step back and explore how Mexican trade has evolved in the 21st century and what lessons it has learned from navigating its relationship with its powerful northern neighbour.

A brief look back at Mexican trade this century

When Trump entered the White House for the first time in 2017, the secure trading dependence Mexico had relied on for years felt fragile. Tariffs, trade wars, and a complete renegotiation of NAFTA threw Mexican industries into turmoil.

For decades, Mexico’s proximity to the United States shaped its trade policies, partnerships, and ambitions. Over 80% of its exports flowed north, creating a dependency that felt secure—until it wasn’t.

Mexico exports value by destination in 2000. Source: OEC 

Trump’s first term in office brought a storm of change for Mexico. Renegotiations of NAFTA and the subsequent implementation of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) shook the bedrock of Mexico’s economic reliance on its neighbour. Tariffs on steel, aluminium, and other key sectors further disrupted the balance. The uncertainty surrounding trade agreements and protectionist policies forced Mexico to confront its vulnerabilities. 

In response, Mexico turned outward, exploring partnerships beyond its long-standing dependency on the US. The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a trade agreement between 12 countries in the Indo-Pacific region, became a cornerstone of this strategy. Mexico’s inclusion in this multilateral pact opened doors to fast-growing markets across Asia-Pacific, including Japan, Vietnam, and Australia. These new opportunities allowed Mexico to expand its export portfolio, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing. 

The country’s evolving relationship with China presented a more complex challenge. China’s influence grew as Mexico imported intermediate goods for its manufacturing sector. Simultaneously, Mexican exports like mining and agricultural goods found new homes in Chinese markets. Yet this relationship was not without its tensions. Competition between Chinese and Mexican goods in North America created friction, particularly as Mexico sought to maintain its foothold in the US.

Infographic of current CPTPP membership. Source: WEF

As global supply chains shifted in the aftermath of Trump’s trade policies and, later, the COVID-19 pandemic, Mexico found itself uniquely positioned to benefit from nearshoring trends. American companies, wary of overreliance on distant suppliers, looked to relocate production closer to home. Mexico’s geographic proximity, skilled labour force, and trade agreements made it an attractive alternative. Industries like automotive and electronics surged, with factories and assembly lines humming with renewed activity. 

Mexico’s investment boom. Source: Apricitas Economics

The renewed activity, however, is once again being threatened, at least rhetorically, in the lead-up to Donald Trump’s second term as president of the United States.

A second Trump term

Trump’s protectionist rhetoric is not new. Before he took office in 2017, his threats to impose 35% tariffs on Mexico were routinely analysed. He has long advocated for an American-first approach to trade policy, regardless of what his many vocal critics say, and used this during the renegotiations of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) – which he dubbed ‘the worst trade deal ever signed’ – and in launching a trade war with China.

A second Trump presidency seems poised to amplify the trade war with China, creating ripple effects that would deeply impact Mexico. The imposition of 60% tariffs on Chinese goods, as the president-elect has touted – would likely affect Mexican manufacturing, given its reliance on Chinese imports for key components in industries such as automotive and electronics. 

Goods manufactured in Mexico using materials imported from China could be considered of Chinese origin when exported to the USA if the imported materials constitute a significant portion of the product’s value or are insufficiently transformed during production in Mexico. Under rules of origin, such as those outlined in trade agreements like the USMCA, a product must meet specific criteria regarding local content and substantial transformation to qualify as originating from Mexico.

For example, if a car assembled in Mexico uses materials produced in China, and those components account for a substantial portion of the vehicle’s overall value, the automobile might not meet the regional value content (RVC) threshold of 75% North American content stipulated under USMCA.

USMCA: Updating NAFTA to bring trade into the 21st century. Source: Pacific Northwest Economic Region (PNWER) 

Additionally, the agreement requires that certain core parts, such as engines, transmissions, and suspensions, originate within North America. If these core parts come from outside the region (e.g., China) and the vehicle fails to undergo a sufficient transformation in Mexico, the car could be disqualified from being treated as Mexican-origin for preferential tariff purposes when exported to the US.

This assumes that the USMCA, which is scheduled for review in 2026, survives Trump’s second term. The president-elect has already threatened to impose tariffs of 25% on all goods coming from Canada and Mexico if the countries do not secure their borders to the flow of irregular migrants and illegal drugs – a scenario that some predict would shrink Canadian and US GDP by 2.6% and 1.6%, respectively.

Many experts and commenters believe that the current round of tariff threats are more like political bargaining chips than an indication of the actual future trade policy, believing that Trump is only using these threats to gain concessions in other areas. 

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Trump in July 2015 described the Mexican government as “forcing their most unwanted people into the United States. They are, in many cases, criminals, drug dealers, rapists, etc.” Beyond a controversial social and cultural rhetoric, the impact of such strong statements against Mexican imports and economic collaboration will only be realised in time.

Whether Mexico will survive Trump is one thing. But a more pertinent question might be, ‘will the US survive another wave of Trump’s trade policies?’.

The post Can Mexico weather a second wave of Trump’s trade policies? appeared first on Trade Finance Global.

At the beginning of this year, we looked ahead and made a series of predictions for what we thought would be the biggest trends in trade, treasury, and payments throughout 2024. 

As the year winds to a close we’re revisiting our predictions to see how well they measured up to reality. Let’s dive in!

Prediction #1: Uncertainty will underpin the macroeconomic landscape (again)

We started our prediction list with a bit of a lob ball – but we sure hit it out of the park. Our prediction that uncertainty would dominate the global macroeconomic landscape in 2024 was spot on. 

The year was marked by slowing global growth, persistent inflationary pressures, and geopolitical disruptions. Central banks maintained cautious monetary policies, and China’s continued economic slowdown weighed heavily on global trade. Energy markets also faced volatility due to fluctuating oil prices amidst geopolitical tensions, including ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Extreme weather and strike action around the world also disrupted global supply chains this year.

Adding to the complexity, elections in more than 60 countries helped to change the faces of leadership around the globe. Some of these, like Donald Trump’s re-election in the USA and the ensuing tariff threats and protectionist rhetoric, leave the world on edge leading into the new year.  

Overall, 2024 helped reaffirm that uncertainty is the only certainty in the world. 

Prediction #2: Supply chain finance expects lacklustre growth

Our prediction of sluggish growth in supply chain finance (SCF) during 2024 ended up being broadly accurate. The trade finance gap expanded and market conditions remained challenging, with tightened liquidity, cautious lending, and ongoing derisking by banks.

Geopolitical tensions, higher borrowing costs, and reduced risk appetite created a challenging environment for SCF in 2024, which strained access for some but created opportunities for non-traditional financiers to have an increasingly prominent role, with fintechs and alternative lenders stepping in to meet demand.

The broader SCF ecosystem saw slow but strategic innovation, with players focusing on simplifying processes and expanding coverage into underserved markets. While the sector didn’t experience transformative growth, it continued to evolve, positioning itself for a more robust recovery in the years ahead.

Prediction #3: Standards and frameworks will take centre stage

At the beginning of the year we predicted that developing standards and frameworks for digitalisation and ESG would be the emphasis in 2024. We got that one right. 

In November, COP29 opened with an agreement on standards for the creation of carbon credits, and tradeable permits tied to greenhouse gas emissions used by governments to measure and limit emissions. 

On the digitalisation side, the adoption of the UNCITRAL Model Law on Electronic Transferable Records (MLETR) gained momentum. Notably, France joined the cohort of countries recognising electronic transferable records, marking a significant step towards global digital trade harmonisation.

Work also continues at UNCITRAL on developing a comprehensive international convention to standardise negotiable cargo documents across multiple transportation modes. The group expects to complete this in late 2025.

These developments show an acceptance of the need for collaborative progress, focusing on establishing adaptable and technology-agnostic solutions to meet evolving digital and sustainability challenges.

Prediction #4: Increased demand will drive growth in trade credit insurance

Our prediction that demand for trade credit insurance (TCI) would grow in 2024 was well-supported by market developments. The ICISA industry report published this year (albeit reporting on FY 2023) showed that trade credit insurance has seen steady demand, bolstered by evolving global trade dynamics and rising counterparty risks.

According to the report, throughout the year insured exposure grew by 4.5%, totalling €3.2 trillion; premiums written increased by 5%, amounting to €8.2 billion; and claims paid rose by 11.4%, reaching €3.2 billion. Penetration rate also increased to 15.07% for 2023, up from 13.16% one year earlier, with currency exchange rates playing a role.

This increase was largely driven by the role that these products play in protecting businesses from the risk of non-payment, which became increasingly prevalent given the economic uncertainties in the market.

Prediction #5: Solving complex issues will be key to fintech survival

Our prediction that fintechs would face a make-or-break year in 2024 was well-founded. The reality of the fintech landscape this year has highlighted both the promise and perils of the sector, with advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), instant payment systems, and blockchain juxtaposed against the financial struggles of some once-promising companies.

Blockchain, once the trendy new technology that everyone hyped, is finally starting to become more mainstream. After what felt like endless white papers and Proofs of Concept (POC), the technology has started being applied to real-world problems to reduce costs, increase efficiency, and improve customer experience. 

Replacing Blockchain as the hot new tech in town is AI. AI is impacting trade finance and payments by promising to automate risk assessments, fraud detection, and personalisation, particularly in supply chain resilience and operational efficiency. The adoption of AI in the financial sector has surged, with global AI spending expected to exceed $300 billion by 2026, according to industry reports.

Unfortunately, the year ended with news on several bank and non-bank lenders collapsing, notably, ABN Amro’s receivables finance team, Stenn and Kimura Capital. This will likely have compounding effects on appetite to lend to SMEs in 2025.

Prediction #6: An infrastructure revolution for payments

Our prediction that 2024 would mark a transformative year for payments infrastructure was accurate in part, though the anticipated revolution was more evolutionary than revolutionary. 

The adoption of ISO 20022, while significant, has been slower than expected in transforming cross-border payments, and the promise of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and distributed ledger technology (DLT) for payments remains largely unrealised.

ISO 20022 adoption expanded globally, especially among larger banks, leveraging the data-rich messaging standard for competitive advantage. However, smaller institutions and developing markets have lagged behind. While some progress was made in using ISO 20022 to improve payment transparency and speed, its broader benefits have yet to be fully realised.

Despite these challenges, the payments industry did make strides in cloud integration and real-time solutions, fostering incremental improvements rather than wholesale transformation.

Prediction #7: Technology will aid decision-making in treasury

Our prediction that technology would transform treasury operations and decision-making in 2024 was largely accurate. Tools like APIs and AI are increasingly becoming mainstays for the contemporary treasury leader, though challenges such as privacy concerns and inconsistent liquidity management adoption remain. By identifying patterns, forecasting cash flow, and simulating liquidity scenarios, AI has begun to enable treasury teams to make faster, more informed decisions. 

However, widespread adoption of real-time liquidity management tools has been slower than anticipated. While these systems can be powerful tools amidst changing market conditions, smaller firms tend to struggle with the cost and complexity of their implementation. Additionally, privacy and data security concerns continue to stand in the way of a deeper integration, as companies weigh the risks of exposing sensitive financial data to digital platforms.

The treasury transformation is ongoing, with many organisations leveraging APIs and AI for operational efficiency, but broader challenges suggest that the evolution will continue well beyond 2024.

Prediction #8: ESG is here to stay

At the beginning of the year, we predicted that ESG would remain central to business strategies in 2024. While this has largely remained the case, the conversation around sustainability took an unexpected turn over the course of the year. While progress was made in areas like harmonised reporting standards and carbon credit frameworks, a quieter, more cautious tone has emerged in corporate ESG efforts.

The enthusiasm that once surrounded ESG has faded. Concerns about greenwashing have given rise to “green hushing,” where companies downplay or stay silent on their sustainability efforts, either as a defensive move or due to diminished prioritisation. This trend has seeped into treasury functions, making the integration of ESG into financial strategies more subdued.

Despite this dip, the outlook for ESG remains promising. The regulatory environment, especially in Europe, is forcing companies to rethink sustainability as a strategic imperative rather than a checkbox exercise. Treasurers, in particular, are realising the potential of ESG investments to drive long-term growth and resilience without compromising profitability.

COP29, branded the “Finance COP,” was a milestone event, resulting in a global framework for tradeable carbon credits and substantial commitments by developed economies to finance green transitions in developing nations. These advances reflect growing regulatory and financial pressure to align global trade with sustainability goals.

The hope is that 2025 will reignite corporate enthusiasm for ESG, with treasury teams leading the charge towards sustainable finance, influencing supply chain practices, and embedding ESG into core business operations.

So, how’d we do?

Looking back at our predictions from the start of the year and comparing them to how events across the trade, treasury, and payments industries played out, we’re pretty happy with our predictions!

Of course, we can’t take all the credit. To make these predictions to spoke with some pretty smart experts across the industry and, well… stole a lot of their ideas, because they are the experts after all!

These trends reaffirmed the importance of staying informed, collaborative, and flexible. As we prepare for 2025, our new year’s resolution is to remain committed to tracking these developments, engaging with industry experts, and sharing insights to help our readers stay informed.

Here’s to another year of making bold predictions – and seeing how they stack up!

The post 2024 predictions vs reality: 8 trends we predicted for 2024, and how reality measured up appeared first on Trade Finance Global.

Life is different in CEE than it was two decades ago. 

Over this time, the economies in the region have been characterised by impressive growth, continuous convergence with Western Europe, and, more recently, inflation, stagnation, and geopolitical uncertainty.

Understanding this journey requires exploring the critical drivers of economic development, the obstacles that have arisen, and how countries in this region are responding to an ever-changing global environment.

In a speech at FCI’s 15th CEE and SEE Regional Conference on Factoring in Prague, Czech Republic, Mr Vít Mikušek, a macroeconomic analyst at Raiffeisen Bank in the Czech Republic, explored the key themes shaping the CEE economies today, with a particular focus on growth, inflation, competitiveness, and the impact of global volatility.

Economic growth and convergence in CEE

CEE economies have experienced rapid economic growth since the turn of the century. Mikušek said, “In the past roughly 20 years, the Czech Republic has more than doubled our economy. Even more remarkable is the case of Poland, where their economy has almost tripled.”

This growth mirrors the predictions of mainstream economic models, which posit that catching-up economies often grow faster than developed ones, causing them to converge. 

However, this particular journey of convergence has not followed a linear path. The COVID-19 pandemic led to stagnation from 2020, with growth trajectories either stalling or slightly declining. By mid-2024, signs of recovery have begun to emerge. 

Mikušek said, “We expect that this year we will see a partial recovery, which should accelerate in the coming years, [but it will not be uniform across the region]. When you go from the south and east side of Europe to the west, you will see less and less growth.” 

The disparity between countries’ growth rates is partly due to the different stages of economic development. Nations further along the development path face diminishing returns to investment, with growth increasingly relying on innovation and technological progress. To maintain momentum, CEE countries need to enhance productivity and focus on high-value-added industries that drive sustainable economic growth.

Inflation and monetary policy trends

Inflation has been a persistent challenge for the CEE region, particularly since the pandemic. 

Inflationary pressures rose sharply, prompting central banks to implement aggressive interest rate hikes. Hungary, for instance, faced the steepest price increases. 

Mikušek said, “The interest rate in Hungary was the highest, also following the highest inflation rates in Hungary. But in most countries in CEE, we’re already in the phase of monetary easing, which we expect to continue at least during 2025.” 

Prices are beginning to stabilise in some places. The Czech Republic, for example, has seen inflation decline to near its target, prompting a rate-cutting cycle earlier than other countries. However, interest rates are expected to remain above pre-pandemic levels. 

Like many factors, this stabilisation has varied considerably by region. While some countries are seeing inflation stabilise, others are still grappling with elevated prices, particularly in services, which directly impacts consumer spending. Balancing inflation control while supporting growth remains central to the monetary policy landscape.

Some countries are benefiting from reduced inflationary pressures, allowing them to stimulate growth through rate cuts. Others are continuing with tight monetary policies to prevent a resurgence of inflation. 

Competitiveness and labour market challenges

Competitiveness, particularly in the labour market, is a crucial element of CEE’s economic story. Mikušek highlighted areas of progress seen in the past 20 years: “in terms of increasing standards of living, but we’ve also seen progress in terms of increasing labour costs, sometimes increasing at a faster pace than the value-added.” 

These increasing wages, while excellent from a living standard perspective, also lead to increased production costs. Particularly for labour-intensive industries, this can result in a loss of competitiveness: as has been occurring in the CEE, particularly in the Czech Republic.

This is why, in order to maintain high levels of growth, “we would need to see a shift towards higher value-added and continue less with the low value-added production of intermediate goods,” according to Mikušek.

This shift will require significant investments in education, innovation, and technology, but is essential for ensuring sustainable growth, especially as low-cost labour advantages diminish. Tight labour markets, characterised by low unemployment rates and rising wages, support consumer spending but also present challenges due to rising operational costs and skill shortages.

Rising energy costs have further complicated competitiveness. Compared to Western Europe and the United States, energy costs in the region have increased substantially, putting additional pressure on industries. 

The region will need to find a way to address these challenges to maintain its competitiveness in the global economy.

Geopolitical factors and exchange rate volatility

Participating in the global economy means dealing with geopolitical factors and fluctuating currency values. 

Regional currencies are particularly susceptible to global instability, leading to increased volatility. Tensions in the Middle East escalated in late 2024, leading to spikes in oil prices and currency fluctuations as investors sought safer assets like the US dollar. 

Despite these short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for CEE currencies remains positive, buoyed by growth and favourable interest rate differentials. 

Central bank policies and geopolitical developments will continue to shape the trajectory of regional exchange rates. As central banks in CEE ease monetary policy, exchange rates will likely adjust, adding complexity to the region’s economic outlook. 

The ability to manage exchange rate fluctuations amidst global uncertainty will be key to sustaining economic stability. 

It is a fascinating economic time for Central and Eastern Europe.

The region has made impressive progress in closing the gap with Western Europe, but it still faces a number of challenges. Inflation, competitiveness issues, and geopolitical tensions are all weighing on its outlook. However, the region’s overall resilience is encouraging, and the groundwork for long-term growth is being laid through prudent policy decisions and a renewed focus on innovation and high-value industries.

Looking ahead, the key to success will be the ability to foster economic transformation by embracing innovation, enhancing productivity, and ensuring that industries move up the value chain. 

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The use of private credit in trade finance is also growing in popularity, particularly as traditional banks face increasing regulatory constraints, such as those introduced by Basel IV. Institutional investors, such as pension funds and insurance companies, are beginning to recognise the untapped potential of trade finance as an asset class.

These private credit providers can help to diversify the sources of funding available to businesses, which, in turn, reduces the reliance on traditional banks that may have limited appetite or capacity to finance smaller businesses. 

One participant said, “The moment that the institutional investor—who has the real money—finds a way to finance the real economy, the banks will not be needed to assess the risk but only to become the pipes.”

This could lead to a reconfiguration of the trade finance landscape, where private credit providers assume a more prominent role in financing the real economy, allowing banks to act as conduits rather than risk assessors.

Another participant added, “Banks would have their space, but there is a need for banks to change and also the industry to come forward in supporting the wider ecosystem on SME financing.”

To encourage the incorporation of other capital sources in trade finance, ITFA’s Trade Finance Investment Ecosystem (ITFIE) have recently launched three working papers. They include a discussion of routes to non-banking capital sources and the role the asset management industry can play; an explanatory overview of trade finance jargon for non-bank investors; and a guiding document to simplify the Securitisation Risk Distribution market, to improve accessibility. 

Addressing the trade finance gap through portfolio-based solutions

For private credit to fully address the trade finance gap, more effort is needed to develop structured financing solutions that appeal to a broad range of investors. 

Private credit deals must be structured to distribute risk efficiently across a portfolio of smaller transactions rather than concentrating on a few large-scale deals. This portfolio-based approach allows for a more balanced and scalable risk management framework, providing greater liquidity to SMEs without exposing individual investors to excessive risk.

One participant in the roundtable said, “There is a massive appetite to finance companies’ working capital. Trade finance is at the heart of what big investors want to do.” This presents an opportunity for collaboration between varied parties.

Scaling up private credit through collaboration

While institutional investors have shown growing interest in the sector, the ability to scale up these investments will depend on the creation of more standardised and transparent structures that appeal to a wide range of investors.

For private credit to become a sustainable and significant contributor to closing the trade finance gap, the industry must continue to innovate in structuring deals that balance risk and return. This require insurers and banks to play a more active role in mitigating risks through mechanisms that can spread risk across a diverse pool of investors, enabling private credit providers to support a greater volume of SME transactions. 

Private credit providers clearly want to finance SME working capital. Now, the question is whether banks and credit insurers will step up and make the necessary adjustments to welcome them to the table.

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Risk distribution is another vital strategy in closing the trade finance gap and the originate-to-distribute (OTD) model has gained traction in recent years, offering a solution that enables banks to shift risk from their balance sheets to a wider network of institutional investors. 

This model, in which banks originate loans and distribute the associated risks to a diverse range of investors (such as pension funds, insurance companies, and non-bank financial institutions), is particularly well-suited for trade finance, where high levels of risk concentration often hinder banks from extending their full lending capabilities to smaller businesses.

Expanding access through partnerships

At the heart of the OTD model is the idea of partnership, with banks collaborating closely with insurers, credit funds, and other financial institutions to spread risk more evenly across a broader investor base. 

As one participant said, “Redistribution allows us to access their programs and them to access our programs. That is a partnership.” 

This collaborative approach enables banks to offload risk and allows institutional investors to participate in trade finance, an asset class that many are just beginning to explore. 

The redistribution of risk creates new opportunities for both banks and non-bank financial institutions, particularly in the context of financing SMEs. By distributing risk to a wider pool of investors, banks can increase their lending capacity while adhering to regulatory capital requirements, making it easier to fund businesses that traditionally struggle to access credit. 

For investors, trade finance represents an attractive investment option. When properly structured, it offers relatively high yields with manageable risk. 

In this way, the OTD model is not just a tool for reducing risk exposure but a mechanism for expanding access to capital across the trade finance ecosystem. As more institutions become comfortable with trade finance as an asset class, the network of investors willing to support SME lending continues to grow. 

Increasing lending capacity through expanded distribution networks 

By expanding their distribution networks, banks can significantly increase their lending capacity, and the OTD model allows them to originate more loans without taking on additional risk, supporting a higher volume of trade finance transactions. 

One participant said, “The more we can spread risk across a broader network of investors, the more capacity we create for new trade deals.” 

In this sense, the OTD model acts as a scaling mechanism for the trade finance industry, allowing banks to continuously lend without being constrained by their balance sheet limitations. 

This increased capacity is particularly beneficial for SMEs, which often find themselves locked out of traditional financing channels due to their perceived riskiness and average smaller transaction sizes. 

Under an OTD model, however, banks will be better able to lend to these businesses, knowing that the associated risks will be shared among a wider network of investors.

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• Digitalisation can lubricate the onboarding process.
• Universal standards and regulation are a necessity for simplified digital trade document handling.
• Advanced data analytics can allow financial institutions to better predict risk.

Digitalisation, long viewed as the catalyst for revolutionising trade finance, is one of the most promising avenues to enhance access to financing, particularly for SMEs. The trade finance sector has historically been weighed down by laborious, manual processes—many of which are time-consuming, costly, and prone to error. 

Onboarding at scale

For decades, one of the most persistent pain points has been the complexity of Know Your Customer (KYC) processes. These compliance-driven requirements, which mandate thorough client verification, are particularly resource-intensive for smaller transactions and newer businesses. 

The financial burden of these procedures, which include extensive documentation and verification, often incentivises financial institutions to focus efforts on their larger clients, who need to finance larger transactions, making it difficult for smaller businesses to secure credit. 

Digitalisation, however, promises to automate much of this onboarding process. By digitising KYC checks, banks and financial institutions can reduce the time and resources required to evaluate clients, thereby lowering costs. This shift makes it feasible for financial institutions to serve SMEs at scale without compromising the rigour of due diligence or regulatory compliance.

In summary, as one participant emphasised, “We need to scale. We need to get ready for the potential influx of the origination business coming from the primary centres.”

Standardise to enable document digitalisation at scale

One promising advancement towards achieving this scale has been the Digital Negotiable Instruments (DNI) initiative, which has gained significant traction, outpacing other platforms with similar objectives. The DNI has simplified trade document handling, enabling smoother, faster, and more transparent cross-border transactions. 

Electronic documents can be processed faster than paper ones, reducing the time it takes to complete trade transactions. Moreover, digital records offer enhanced traceability and audibility, further strengthening the integrity of trade finance operations.

Another promising development is the rise of the ICC DSI’s KTDDE (Key Trade Documents and Data Elements), which is helping to align data throughout the trade finance ecosystem, reducing the cost and risk associated with constantly transforming data as it moves between systems. The KTDDE also recognises the DNI standards for negotiable instruments as the preferred international format.

In a sector that has long relied on paper-based tools, such as bills of lading and letters of credit, which are slow and susceptible to fraud, loss, or mismanagement, document digitalisation is a critical step forward. However, it cannot be efficiently done without a standardised environment. 

As of the KTDDE November 2023 report, only 21 of the 36 key trade documents analysed are standardised. While more work is needed in these areas, the industry has made significant strides in 2024 and has the potential for further innovation and scaling in 2025.

environment.

Source: ICC DSI, Key Trade Documents and Data Elements, 2024

Beyond standardisation and streamlining the onboarding process, digitalisation allows for better data collection and management, a critical aspect in improving the underwriting and risk assessment processes.

Leveraging data 

Through advanced data analytics, financial institutions can draw on a wealth of real-time information to predict risks more accurately and make better-informed decisions. This is particularly vital for SMEs, which often lack the credit histories or financial data that larger corporations can offer. 

As one participant noted, “If the transactions are digital with data from the beginning, we are in a different position when it comes to sharing data and harvesting it for downstream processes like sanction screening or risk assessment.” 

This real-time data, gathered from digital transactions, enables institutions to assess creditworthiness more effectively, providing a clearer understanding of risk profiles, especially for lesser-known businesses. As more accurate data is fed into the system, financial institutions can build confidence in lending to SMEs, which might have previously been considered too risky.

However, as financial institutions increasingly rely on data-driven algorithms to assess risk, monitoring for potential algorithmic discrimination becomes crucial. Without careful oversight, these systems could unintentionally reinforce biases, disadvantaging certain groups or businesses. Ensuring transparency, fairness, and accountability in the way algorithms process and interpret data will trust and foster inclusive access to trade finance for all SMEs, which are essential steps.

Regulation enabling digitalisation  

Regulatory changes, such as the adoption of frameworks like the Model Law on Electronic Transferable Records (MLETR), are also supporting the move towards digitisation. 

This regulatory shift is crucial in providing the legal backing for electronic trade documents to be recognised across borders. There is no bigger hurdle to digital document adoption at the firm level than the fear that such a document would not be recognised by the legal system in the event of a dispute. 

As more countries adopt MLETR or similar frameworks, the potential for global digital trade finance increases exponentially. One participant said, “We need a more widespread regulatory movement for more geographies to adopt it because trade doesn’t work in isolation. Just the UK passing regulation or one more geography will not be enough.”

Another added, “If we see more adoption, more geographies, and therefore more companies and clients adopting it when our clients push us, we will move.”

SMEs, in particular, stand to benefit from a shift towards a digitally friendly legislative environment. With electronic trade documents reducing the friction in international transactions, SMEs can access new markets and expand their global footprint, backed by faster and more secure trade financing options.

Digitalisation in the years ahead

Digitalisation will help to reshape trade finance by addressing longstanding inefficiencies in processes like KYC, underwriting, and document management, which will narrow the funding gap by making it easier for smaller businesses to access credit. 

The use of automated tools, such as AI, for onboarding, policy writing, and risk underwriting will help to consistently lower the costs of servicing clients. These developments, both among the major providers and smaller providers augmented by specialised platform providers, will help make credit insurance cheaper and more open to the smaller end of the SME segment.

But there is more to digitalisation than just digitalisation; without standardised methods and enabling legislation, there can be no digital transformation at scale. 

As digital platforms and tools are adopted more widely, they will improve access to financing for SMEs, making it easier, faster, and cheaper for smaller businesses to participate in global trade. By leveraging the power of digital tools, trade finance institutions can open up new opportunities for SMEs to grow and thrive in the international marketplace. 

The traction gained in 2024, particularly with initiatives like DNI and KTDDE, indicates a promising future, as the industry looks to build on these advancements and overcome the scaling challenges ahead in 2025.

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